Beat the SW and Hit the Beach Now by Adam Kamdar on the Durban Beachfront #kzn #ocean #conditions

Beat the SW and Hit the Beach Now by Adam Kamdar on the Durban Beachfront #kzn #ocean #conditions: These weather predictors seem to be having a really hard time with their predicting. When they all first started out, they were soooooo accurate. We were planning surfing trips literally weeks in advance.

Nowadays?

Over to Adam…on the beautiful Durban Beachfront…where the wind is blowing but the sun is shining (for now)…as he aggregates all the currently available weather and wave data into this report…

Disclaimer: our reports are a combination of all the weather and wave data we can muster at that particular moment. We check all the different forecasters and models. Including government synoptic and satellite charts. And use the average. Plus some of our own intuition gathered since living here in Southern Africa for over half a century.

Back to the predictors…all of a sudden…most all of the predictors (selling advertising to get by) started predicting bad weather. And always in a week to 10 days or so. Then as we get closer, it changes back to what makes sense. This is because humans are up to 100 x more inclined to click on bad news. Trust me I run a news outlet and I have the figures for all to see.

There are many models available in every area that can be employed to conjure up a weather prediction. These models are used by the weather and wave predictors with which to make their product – a forecast. But these models can vary in their predictions.

Commercial online weather services like Windguru and Windy typically use a variety of weather prediction models to provide accurate forecasts. Here are some of the main models they might use:

1. Global Forecast System (GFS): This is a global model run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States. It provides forecasts up to 16 days in advance¹.
2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): Known for its accuracy, this model provides medium-range forecasts up to 10 days ahead¹.
3. High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): This is a high-resolution model that provides short-term forecasts, updated hourly, and is particularly useful for predicting severe weather¹.
4. ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic): Developed by the German Weather Service, this model provides global forecasts with a high resolution¹.
5. NAM (North American Mesoscale): This model focuses on North America and provides detailed short-term forecasts¹.
6. AROME (Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale): Used by Meteo-France, this model provides high-resolution forecasts for Europe¹.

These models are often combined and compared to provide the most accurate and reliable weather forecasts possible. Each model has its strengths and is suited to different types of weather prediction, from global to very localized forecasts.

So it is very easy to just choose the model that shows the worst weather. And get a lot more clicks.

100 x more!

To combat this juggling of results, we have now included a current synoptic chart on all of our daily reports. Synoptic charts, although difficult to read, do not lie. You can see those fronts coming for miles. And you can see cut off lows develop. And cyclones too. These are the crucial elements for us to watch. It will be better for all of us if we all stay familiar with current synoptic charts.

Today is a prime example. ALL the forecaster preached doom and gloom for today Sunday 19 September 2024. Many, many people cancelled their weekends down the coast or on the beachfront. So far, there is no rain at all. The sun is shining through. And a lovely and friendly SW wind is building on the outside. Painting the ocean pretty. In Durban on the delightful beachfront , surfers are surfing, bathers are bathing…and you can even catch a sun tan – for now. Maybe even a fish if you are in the right spot.

Water has dropped to 19 degrees Celsius.

It is NOT raining in Mdumbi either (deep Transkei Wild Coast). But there are clouds darkening and building in the south. They are desperate for rain down thataway so for their sake, let it pour tonight. And stop tomorrow!

ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY!

Durban 8am

Sardines n Sighting Maps

It has been a fantastic  sardine run this memorable 2024. And all the action has been logged right here on The Sardine News. This year’s map has been viewed 182,000 times and keeps growing.

Which led us to decide to keep the map live. And keep adding unique marine animal sightings and events. That occurs non-stop all year round. This year we started to log more whale and dolphin sightings. And we even had a shipwreck! And a freaking tornado!

These events will from now on be included in the Sardine News Sightings Map for 2024. And on the 1 January 2025, we shall start all over again.

Here are the links to existing and past Sardine Sighting Maps. Great for chilly day like today to research. With instructions to install The Sardine News right on your phone or desktop.

2024 Sardine Map

2023 Sardine Map

2022 Sardine Map

2021 Sardine Map

Channels

Brucifire Surf Retorts – highly entertaining  surf reporting

Master Watermen – news from way down deep

The Sardine News – neva miss a single  sardine

FishBazaruto – 1000 pounds plus

MYDO Tackle Talk – highly technical  sport fishing

Surf Launching Southern Africa – getting out there safely

Water Woes – complain about your municipality here

Websites

umzimkulu.co.za – self-catering right on the Umzimkulu River
umzimkuluadrenalin.co.za –  will get you right onto the edge
thesardine.co.za – never miss a single  sardine or storm warning
masterwatermen.co.za – news from deep down
brucifire.co.za –  surf and conditions reporting
fishbazaruto.com – your dreams are out there
mydofishinglures.co.za – technical  sport fishing

Weekend Synopsis for KZN Natal by Adam Kamdar 28 Sep 2024 #sea #conditions #durban #south #north

Weekend Synopsis for KZN Natal by Adam Kamdar 28 Sep 2024 #sea #conditions #durban #south #north:. Thankfully we have Adam Kamdar back in the studio. Adam took a few days off and was duly backed up by Cliff Bamber (Beach Report). And The Bear (Master Watermen) who kept us well in the loop through the midweek. A big thank you to all the Sardine News Contributors. And Viewers.

This is becoming a LOT OF FUN!

Ok over to Adam…

In as much as we do also post elsewhere like TikTok, Facey and Instagram…the Sardine News breaks on our YouTube channel first. If you make sure you are subscribed, you should then never miss a single sardine or synopsis. Or decent catch. A good sighting. We even log shipwrecks here on The Sardine News.

The results are posted on the Sardine News Sightings Map each year. Which you can easily and freely access right here.

You can find our YouTube Channel right HERE!

Durban Gallery 28 Sep ’24

And its not even Kobtober yet

Alan in Sheppy reports in from the rain, seaweed and tobies. And Kob!

It takes effort and suffering to catch fish like this beautiful brace of well-sized kob in Port Shepstone. One on live mullet, the other on a paddletail.

Rain. Tobies. Cold. Seaweed. You got to smash through all these barriers to get your bait in front of a hungry kob. But the water is green and cold. Just the way kob like it. And it’s only raining cats. Not dogs. Yet!

The weather okes never told us about this incessant drizzle becoming a rain every now and then. Hoping that by lunchtime it will have burned off. Either way, a great day to be fishing. Wherever you are.

Sardines n Sighting Maps

It has been a fantastic  sardine run this memorable 2024. And all the action has been logged right here on The Sardine News. This year’s map has been viewed 182,000 times and keeps growing.

Which led us to decide to keep the map live. And keep adding unique marine animal sightings and events. That occurs non-stop all year round. This year we started to log more whale and dolphin sightings. And we even had a shipwreck! And a freaking tornado!

These events will from now on be included in the Sardine News Sightings Map for 2024. And on the 1 January 2025, we shall start all over again.

Here are the links to existing and past Sardine Sighting Maps. Great for chilly day like today to research. With instructions to install The Sardine News right on your phone or desktop.

2024 Sardine Map

2023 Sardine Map

2022 Sardine Map

2021 Sardine Map

Channels

Brucifire Surf Retorts – highly entertaining  surf reporting

Master Watermen – news from way down deep

The Sardine News – neva miss a single  sardine

FishBazaruto – 1000 pounds plus

MYDO Tackle Talk – highly technical  sport fishing

Surf Launching Southern Africa – getting out there safely

Water Woes – complain about your municipality here

Websites

umzimkulu.co.za – self-catering right on the Umzimkulu River
umzimkuluadrenalin.co.za –  will get you right onto the edge
thesardine.co.za – never miss a single  sardine or storm warning
masterwatermen.co.za – news from deep down
brucifire.co.za –  surf and conditions reporting
fishbazaruto.com – your dreams are out there
mydofishinglures.co.za – technical  sport fishing

Futi Elephant Corridor Closed by Cyril Squirrel

Futi Elephant Corridor Closed by Cyril Squirrel: In another remarkably typical and senseless move, the ANC government has moved to close off a centuries-old elephant and big game corridor. This corridor is known as The Futi Corridor. The move has been made under the leadership of Cyril the Squirrel. Who has been instrumental in the project’s development.

They are building a friggin concrete wall across the corridor for 160kms!

In the meantime, here is The Sardine News for today the 26 September 2024…

Back to the elephants…

The SIU have been busy. Dodgy tenders and the usual siphoning or looting of the country’s coffers are the real reason for the fence. And to hell with the elephants. Who have been using this vital arterial corridor far longer than any putrid humans have been around.

In fact, the corridor was hailed as a huge success at it’s inception. Way back in 2009. By the very same government!

This is from Transfrontier Conservation Areas | Department of Environmental Affairs (dffe.gov.za)…yes, our very own DAFF…(the same government that’s building the wall)

Lubombo Transfrontier Conservation and Resource Area: 4,195 km2 in extent, of which 317 km2 (8%) is in Swaziland, 2,783 km2 (66%) is in Mozambique, and 1,095 km2 (26%) is in South Africa.

• Background

The Lubombo TFCA is a unique and complex TFCA, consisting of five mini TFCAs. The Lubombo Transfrontier Conservation and Resource Area (TFCA) Protocol was signed between the Governments of Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland on 22 June 2000 . These mini TFCAs are as follows:

• Ndumu-Tembe-Futi TFCA is between Mozambique and South Africa (SA)
• Ponto do Ouro-Kosi Bay Marine and Coastal TFCA is between Mozambique and SA
• Nsubane-Pongola TFCA is between SA and Swaziland
• Lubombo Conservancy-Goba TFCA is between Mozambique and Swaziland
• Songimvelo-Malolotja TFCA is between SA and Swaziland (recently incorporated into Lubombo TFCA)

• Where is the Lubombo TFCA?
  
• Ndumo-Tembe-Futi TFCA will link the Maputo Elephant Reserve, through the Futi corridor, with the Ndumo Game Reserve and Tembe Elephant Park in South Africa . Other community conservation areas within this region will be incorporated into this TFCA.
• Ponto do Ouro-Kosi Bay Marine and Coastal TFCA will link the Greater St Lucia Wetlands World Heritage Site with the coastline of Mozambique.
• Nsubane-Pongola TFCA would encompass the Jozini region in SA and the Lavumisa region in Swaziland
• Lubombo Conservancy-Goba TFCA will encompass the Royal Hlane National Park and Mlawula Game Reserve in Swaziland and the Changalane region in Mozambique
• Songimvelo Malolotja TFCA will include the Songimvelo Nature Reserve in SA and the Malolotja Nature Reserve in Swaziland.

• Major features

Significant biodiversity resources exist in the area, some of which are listed below:

• The area represents a substantial proportion of the core area of the IUCN designated Maputoland Centre of plant endemism
• There is an unusually high level of endemism from all high level taxonomic groupings e.g. aves, amphibians, reptilians.
• A diverse landscape which is intact in this geomorphical, hydrological, aquatic, terrestrial and ecological functioning.
• Several established protected areas, namely, Ndumo Game Reserve, Tembe Elephant Park, Maputo Elephant Reserve and Sileza Nature Reserve.
• Ndumo Game Reserve, listed as a Wetland of International importance in terms of UNESCO’s Ramsar Convention.
• The Futi Delta is a unique wetland.
• The region has the potential for reestablishment of the natural movement range for elephant and other species.
• Many tropical biota and unique vegetation communities such as sand forests and woody grasslands exist in the area.
• The bird species are also prevalent.
• The World Heritage Site, Greater St Lucia Wetlands Park’s significant features include:

1.   Coral reefs which include soft corals
2.   800 species of marine fish
3.   Humpback whales pass close to the shore in route to east Africa
4.   Ragged tooth shark aggregations are popular attractions for SCUBA divers
5.   Whale sharks and manta rays are sighted frequently.

• Cultural importance

The rich sociological, cultural and historical resources of the areas are as follows:

• The communities practice the unique form of traditional fishing and fishery management ( fonya ).
• There are several ancestral and sacred sites and important cultural associations with certain species of animals.
• The area has a rich history with past linkages with Arab traders, Portuguese and British colonisation.
• There is considerable movement and tribal affiliation of people across the international boundaries.
• Traditional craft markets allow the communities to market their goods.

AND THEN THEY BUILD A FENCE RIGHT ACROSS IT~!

Source: Transfrontier Conservation Areas | Department of Environmental Affairs (dffe.gov.za)

Sardines n Sighting Maps

It has been a fantastic  sardine run this memorable 2024. And all the action has been logged right here on The Sardine News. This year’s map has been viewed 182,000 times and keeps growing.

Which led us to decide to keep the map live. And keep adding unique marine animal sightings and events. That occurs non-stop all year round. This year we started to log more whale and dolphin sightings. And we even had a shipwreck! And a freaking tornado!

These events will from now on be included in the Sardine News Sightings Map for 2024. And on the 1 January 2025, we shall start all over again.

Here are the links to existing and past Sardine Sighting Maps. Great for chilly day like today to research. With instructions to install The Sardine News right on your phone or desktop.

2024 Sardine Map

2023 Sardine Map

2022 Sardine Map

2021 Sardine Map

Channels

Brucifire Surf Retorts – highly entertaining  surf reporting

Master Watermen – news from way down deep

The Sardine News – neva miss a single  sardine

FishBazaruto – 1000 pounds plus

MYDO Tackle Talk – highly technical  sport fishing

Surf Launching Southern Africa – getting out there safely

Water Woes – complain here

Websites

umzimkulu.co.za – self-catering right on the Umzimkulu River
umzimkuluadrenalin.co.za –  will get you right onto the edge
thesardine.co.za – never miss a single  sardine or storm warning
masterwatermen.co.za – news from deep down
brucifire.co.za –  surf and conditions reporting
fishbazaruto.com – your dreams are out there
mydofishinglures.co.za – technical  sport fishing